Coffee with GannFann

The Coffee Cup Is Empty!!

Dear Friends....

I am going to be closing down the Coffee with Gannfann Site...... There are several reasons for my decision but I do believe that it is necessary.... I will be completing my forecasting series and will contact those that expressed an interest when it is completed.

I have worked hard on this site in an effort to educate some in the advantages of TA and how it can help minimize losses. I have been blessed by receiving so many emails that said that I have helped in some way, so this means that my blog was a success....

I would like to thank all of you for your dedication and commitment to the success of this blog..... It is my hope that all of you will do well in your everyday investments and trading.

I will miss sharing my coffee with all of you....and I wish you and your family the very best....

Gannfann

Sorry ... No post today...

I am currently working on a couple of things that need my attention... will post as soon as I can...

Last Gasp..... or Saving Breath?

Yesterday:

 

The S&P hit both my forecasted targets yesterday for the first resistance was 916 and we hit a high of 915.57 and hit a low of 896.46 near my forecasted low of 894. Prices failed to rally right off the open, suggesting further weakness in a failed rally.

 

“Traders need to watch for break of the 900 range, and we could see a move to the 886 range.”

 

“It is my opinion that this move may be over and we could see a corrective move break hard, but prices must break some important ranges to confirm that for me. In my mind there is nothing that will prevent prices from reaching my 400 range target.”

 

Today:

 

We should see the continuation of the corrective move that I called on May 7^th, and we should reach yesterday's price target of 886. Since we have violated the 900 range we are seeing further weakness. We are seeing the retracement of the main move. Traders need to be mindful of support ranges that could come into play within this swing.

 

Support / Resistance:

916-918 2^nd resistance

907-909 1^st resistance

886-888 1^st support

866-868 2^nd support

 

Notes:

 

Many of you that have followed my comments understand what we must now see in this price movement. Those of you who are new here and it is important since we have a valid uptrend to keep in mind that the trend is still intact and corrective moves are normal, if prices are to push higher. Our advantage as analysts is that we know the price ranges that support and strength should come in. If we do not see the commitment from the market, we realize that we will retest her prior lows. Although, I feel that we will retest the prior lows, and eventually break them. A prudent trader will understand that we will see were could see a bounce near key retracement levels from this swing.

 

Patrick Hughes

Gann fann

Heads or Tails?

Yesterday:

 

The S&P sold off in a corrective move after hitting both my price and time target. The market gapped down on the open and appeared to have difficulty creating a rally.  Prices held my 1^st forecasted support range of 908 (actual low 908.68 one).

 

Today:

 

We could continue to see a further slide here, as prices try to recover from yesterday's corrective move, but may be sold into. Traders need to watch for break of the 900 range, and we could see a move to the 886 range. If this move is over, many times you can see the last gasp before a big selloff takes place on a believe you will see prices had lower to try to stabilize the uptrend. In my opinion, I believe this is just a bear counter rally. That may be overextended and that top may be in on the short-term.  In many of my comments I have mentioned that I believe this counter rally will not last long, but traders must understand that this is the last gasp before the primary trend resumes. In my mind there is no way that prices can reach the historical highs set in a perfect market environment.

 

Support / Resistance:

926-928 2^nd resistance

916-918 1^st resistance

902-904 1^st support

892-894 2^nd support

 

Notes:

 

Prices will try to fight this selloff, as it attempts to break the prior high, and depending upon the momentum or lack thereof it can give us signs of the possible failure in this pattern. It is important, as a trader to understand the trend is still up and to plan accordingly and do not make heavy bets to early in the pattern without factoring in the possibility that we are seeing a corrective move in an uptrend. It is my opinion that this move may be over and we could see a corrective move break hard, but prices must break some important ranges to confirm that for me. In my mind. There is nothing that will prevent prices from reaching my 400 range target.

 

Gann fann

Patrick Hughes

Banking on the Banks?

Friday:

 

Price's retested the prior high set on Thursday, hitting the 930 range two times, showing a possible double top. Although I stated is a possibility for a corrective move on Friday. Prices made a second attempt at the high creating the double top, but did consider that the top may extend until May 11^th. Here are my comments……

 

“The important ranges of 931 (930.21 actual High) with a violation there would see prices move two 940 range.”

 

Posted by Gannfann on May 08, 2009 at 09:07 AM

 

“I see a possible change occur on May 9 or May 11 near the price ranges of 931 or 941.”

 

Posted by Gannfann on May 07, 2009 at 09:24 AM

 

Today:

 

Prices reached a double top on Friday, hit my target and time, so we should see a corrective move begin to take place. Traders need to keep in mind that this corrective move may find support at prior bottoms since we still have a valid uptrend and we have not broken prior lows of the uptrend yet. I am starting to see significant divergence taking place on the 60 minute chart, so we could see a corrective move or the end of this move start to take place soon. From a technical analysis perspective, unless we have seen violations of the second prior low or break in the trend line. We cannot confirm yet that there has been a change in trend. From my analysis, I believe we have seen a change in trend, but I can only say that it may be on the short term until I can confirm absolutely through the violations of other indicators. If my analysis still holds true if we do not hold this range, we will see a corrective move break-in to exceed the 666 range. It is still critical that we have a violation of the prior lows but I do see that this move is still a bear counter rally. If we were to break the 930 range prices could extend to higher targets the high authority outlined and this move may extend until June 1^st.

 

 

Support / Resistance:

 

940-942 2^nd resistance

928-930 1^st resistance

908-910 1^st support

900-902 2^nd support

 

Notes:

 

Traders need to understand that this is not a conspiracy or manipulation taking place is just survival of those that have already over extended themselves during the prior breakdown of this market. It is natural, if you have huge trading positions to need to move out of those positions into more profitable ones and minimize risk. There are also traders that are very aware of retracement levels, especially major retracement levels, where we found significant support and a valid short-term uptrend to take advantage of. This basic technical analysis and just as it is predictable that prices will rally off major retracement's. It is also predictable that this move will exhaust itself as buyers exhaust their funds and news becomes more difficult to overlook. It is still my feeling that traders are moving out or liquidating positions into this move, in hopes of protecting their downside risk.

 

Gannfann

Good News!! Unemployment Rose to 8.9!!! Let's Rally!!

Yesterday:

 

The market rallied at the open hitting my forecasted target of 930 (929.58 actual high) in the S&P . It then went through a corrective move retesting the important lows in the 900 range. Here are my comments….

 

“Prices should continue their advance, and we may see a test of the 930-931 range. “

 

 

Today:

 

The employment numbers rose again by .4% and of course we are seeing a positive spin being placed within the media and analysts. This again in my opinion is window dressing to prevent sellers from coming into the market, while allowing big investors the ability to correct their balance sheets. We have just seen some of the result of the stress tests being done in such a public fashion. According to Reuters Wells Fargo is selling 6 billion in an offering with J.P. Morgan. In addition, we are seeing Morgan Stanley announced a 4 billion share offering.

 

We could see some selling start to take place today and we may see further corrective move. It is important to realize that this is a normal move, because you are seeing a possibility of a lower bottom being formed in and an up rally. Prices will need to gain strength to advance further, and it is normal to see pullbacks before further advances can be created. The important ranges of 931 with a violation there would see prices move two 940 range. In my opinion, this move needs a corrective move to take place if we are to see a greater move to 1000. Prices have been holding important support ranges and corrective moves have been creating higher bottoms so far without violating prior lows.

 

Support / Resistance:

 

928-930 2^nd resistance

920-922 1^st resistance

904-906 1^st support

886-888 2^nd support

 

Notes:

 

Traders need to watch directories here, and their overall commitment regarding trend direction since the trend is still technically up.

 

Gannfann

 

Good News!!! The Major Banks Need more Cash!! Lets Rally!!!

Yesterday:

 

The S&P hit my resistance target of 920 and did not break that range. Prices did not go through a corrective move for any retest. Since the trend is clearly defined as up, we are getting some follow-through and a break of the upper trendline on the wedge pattern.

 

Today:

 

Prices should continue their advance, and we may see a test of the 930-931 range. It appears that the market is shrugging off the fact that banks need to obtain additional cash. This optimistic viewpoint is based on the need to believe and because many investors have made major commitments and have  losses that they need to average out. This move could easily get some legs and advanced into the 1020 range, but it does appear that we will see a corrective move prior to that move and may occur at 941 or 950 range. I believe if this rally extends past this week, we will see the up trend lasts until June 1^st or 2^nd.

 

If this is a hope rally it occurs out of sheer necessity where people invest in hopes to see new highs again, and the prior move to still be intact. Eventually, the move dissipates as a culmination of bad news or mediocre performance occurs. There is no way under this current market conditions (created by business and government intervention) that this market can sustain the earnings or the price movement that we have seen in the past which occurred under perfect businesslike conditions.

 

I see a possible change occur on May 9 or May 11 near the price ranges of 931 or 941. My take on this move is that it may be a blow off followed by their corrective move to occur. Prices are becoming overextended on the short-term, but they must be allowed to take place. After the corrective move, as long as there is no violations of some prior major lows we could see another advance to complete by June 1.

 

Support / Resistance:

940-942 2^nd resistance

930-931 1^st resistance

918-920 1^st support

907-909 2^nd support

 

Notes:

 

Traders must be mindful that the trend is up currently. In that this is a bounce off a major retracement after very long decline. So takes time to allow the money managers and investors to bargain hunt and protect positions.

 

Gannfann

Coffee and a Grapefruit!!

Well I'm back, and hopefully my time away has served me well.

 

Yesterday:

 

Prices attempted to create a new high, but failed to do so in the days trading as prices are closer toward the upper channel of the wedge pattern. The S&P hit my target range of 900 short term looks like a corrective move could be very likely. Since I've been away, the market has continued creating higher lows and higher highs establishing an up trend, but it may be overextended on the short-term.

 

For the life of me I don't understand the point of stress tests, when the market is already under major stress. The banks need pressure to be taking off them and to instill confidence in the banking industry. It is a very dangerous game to isolate certain banks and tell the public that they are lacking assets such as Bank of America and Citigroup. The market didn't blink an eye on bad news towards disappointing earnings and continued trouble with banking and the automotive industry.

 

Today:

 

The marketplace is continuing to trend higher, and many of the charts are starting to look overextended, but could have a slight amount of upside here. If we get a break over the 920 range, and I believe we could see a secondary target that I have pointed out in my prior chart near 1000. This should not happen without a corrective move to gain the strength necessary to hit that target. There is a very good possibility that we could see the secondary target, but traders must watch their entries here since we've had a pretty good move over an extended period of time. Prices could retest the 886 888 range, and I do believe this move will start to stall soon. Prices should see some resistance here and around 907-908 and 918-920.

 

Support / Resistance:

 

918-920 2^nd resistance

908-910 1^st resistance

886-888 1^st support

876-878 2^nd support

 

Notes:

 

The market has shrugged off a great deal of bad news, and continued to trade higher demonstrating a commitment from mutual funds or hedge funds to average their positions. This pattern is still a very dangerous pattern, and as far as I'm concerned, the prior 666 low will be broken. But this move must complete and maybe test prior to retracement levels from the main move, which are higher. Please refer to my long-term chart for target ranges.

 

Gannfann

Rising Wedge on the Daily

Rising Wedge

60 minute S&P Chart Update

Here is a new chart of our recent trading