Coffee with GannFann

Finally On-Line!!!

Wow... That took some doing!!

Well prices hit the 900 range and topped short term... but I need to do more charting...

I was hoping to up and ready earlier but of course nothing can be easy!! Anyway... Tomorrow I will have a post with charts, but today I have to spend time charting to see where we are since my charting is Internet based.... Just not enough time to post and chart....

Thanks for your patience

 

Gannfann

 

Now Where Did I Put That Coffee Mug?

Hey All!!

I thought you guys said you were going to help me move!! Figures... lol

Well I am down here in Sunny Florida.... but it will take a little longer to get up and running....

My first post will be on May 2nd... and until then I will try to post some comments when I can....

I will be working on the forecasting series while I am unable to post so at least there will be progress on some front.....

Thank you all.... See you soon when I get rid of some of these boxes!!

Gannfann

Two Charts with Your Coffee?

Well I am back, and I would like to thank all of you who have written me and commented on this site with words of appreciation and good will… It was greatly appreciated.

 

Since I have been away for quite some time, I felt it necessary to create several charts that could give a clear direction of where we've been and where the markets may move. Since this will be my only post until I finish my move which may take a week to get situated. I will try to give the longer-term outlook as opposed to daily trading scenario.

 

Looking at the long-term chart we can see a clear violation of the prior low created in 2002 and looking closer at the chart. You can see how we held an important retracement at the 640 range. We have had a long decline over 17 months, so it is understandable that we would be seeing a five week rally off of those important support points. Looking at the chart you can see the long-term trendline holding a rising wedge pattern. It appears that prices should trade within these ranges and making further advances, providing it can hold the lower trendline and 50 moving average. Many of you will remember the prior levels from the past that I stated were important and they were the 820 and 856 (which prices held on Fridays trading day).

 

The advance is starting to become slightly oversold on the short-term, but I do feel that there could be some additional upside movement, provided we break that prior resistance at 856. We could see a long-term target of 900 but prices may need a slight to retest the trendline and the moving average for prices to advance.

 

I would like to state on the long-term chart that you can see the drastic move that has taken place over a very short amount of time. Since the speed of the decline is drastic. This last move up, should be short-lived and will break and then break hard with a fast decline. This pattern just needs to run its course to the upside first, since it is the last hope rally.

 

 

Today: Prices should so show a little weakness today, as profit-taking could rule the day , as prices try a retest of the support line on the trendline. It is critical that prices maintained that line and a break of the 820 range, could indicate a further decline and a corrective to take place. Since we are seeing a tighter trading range we will have a clear defined direction as prices break through these trend lines. I am still very bearish on this market and believe that this rally will be short-lived, and we will see a major decline develop soon. This may take some time to develop since we have been in a decline for quite some time and we are due for counter move that may last several weeks longer.

 

Bulls: The Bulls could use this opportunity to gain positions as close to the moving average trend line as possible for another potentially advance. Prices must hold the lower trendline and the 50 day moving average and gain strength over the next several days or this may indicate a break in the pattern and tend to weakness of the overall trend.

 

Bears: The Bears need prices to break the moving average and the lower trendline. And this could indicate a corrective move may be taking place. The difficulty here for the Bears is the fact that this corrective move is normal, if prices are to advance to the 900 range. This is why it is important to watch these support ranges for potential weakness in the overall trend.

 

Support / Resistance:

 

864-866 2^nd resistance

856-857 1^st resistance

842-844 1^st support

831-833 2^nd support

 

 

Notes:

 

I will be not be posting since I am in the process of moving and it will take some time for me to get everything situated to get Internet access or  to resolve some other issues. I will do my best to get online and posting as soon as I can. I hope the charts may help all of you see, the longer-term potential of this move. Please keep posting and I will do my best to be back as soon as possible.

 

Again, I would like to think all of you for your kind comments while I was away.

 

Gannfann

Short Term -- 60 minute Chart

 

Chart of the S&P on a 60min...

Long Term Chart

Long Term Move

GannFann's Back for Coffee on Monday!!

Hello everyone!!

I will be back on Monday to start posting again, and it is my hope that many of you have remained here, sharing insights. I'm in the process of moving, so things are a little crazy for me right now. But I will be back to post on Monday. I will be trying to answer some of the questions that have been posted.

My time away has been an educational and insightful. I was extremely fortunate to have the opportunity that was graciously given to me.

 

Gannfann

Friends of Gannfann!!

Dear Friends of Gannfann

 

A personal opportunity has presented itself and I regret to inform all of you that I will be taking some time off from my blog. Please feel free to use the blog and information within for your personal education, and you never know when I will stop by to say hello from time to time. I appreciate everyone’s time and dedication to the success of this blog and your attendance has never been overlooked. So until I return, keep an eye out for me….

 

For those that expressed an interest in the forecasting series, that is currently on hold. I will keep the emails or contact information for those that were interested and if or when it is released I will contact those wanted the series.

 

Thank you all for your support……

 

Happy Trading

 

Gannfann

Gone Ice Fishing!!

Friday:

 

The S&P could not create the momentum necessary to move into the 770 range, so prices held my 755-757 (758.29 actual) target and very close to my 11:00am time target. Prices went through a corrective move hitting my 1^st support target of 742 (742.46 actual within .46 cents) and knowing that 741.02 was a major low should have been a great long opportunity. Prices rallied off the support range since there was still strength in the move as I suggested in my commentary….

 

“Prices should reach the top for this initial advance so look for a possible turns near the 755-757 or if there is some momentum a top near 770-772.”

 

“We could see a corrective move as prices reach some important targets. There has been a three day rally so I would be looking for this to weaken near the targets, but this rally seems to have some strength. “

 

 

Today:

 

Prices are getting closer to the retracement price targets of 770-772 or it may extend to itself into the 800 range but this move to the upside is almost over on the short term. We have had an advance for some time so I believe that we will see prices go through a corrective move. This market will start to break again to the downside soon as prices begin to over reach. Traders need to understand that retracements give the best entries or exits depending on your strategy, but I am not saying that the primary trend is resuming again. Prices could break from the 770 or the 800 range and hold the 700 or 720 range on the corrective and still maintain the up trend since prices are over many important moving averages. So the jury is still out on how long the bear rally will last but this is to early to call.

 

Bulls: The risk to the upside is starting to increase as prices move into important ranges where prices could start to stall. The Bulls have had a pretty good move from the 666.79 low so traders must watch for weakness to set in. Prices should start to top out soon so traders need to be mindful of corrective moves and the strength of prices on the corrective moves.

 

Bears: The bears should get the short entry soon, but need to be prudent and realistic about the corrective target. How prices trade after the corrective move will give signs if the primary trend is starting again, but right now it is to early in the price movement to be sure. If prices could break the 740 range that would positive for the bears and a break of the 700 range would confirm that the primary may be resuming again, but that is a long way from there.

 

Support / Resistance:

 

770-772 2^nd resistance

761-762 1^st resistance

744-746 1^st support

732-734 2^nd support

 

Notes:

 

Traders need to watch out for the following ranges 770-772, 786 or the 800-802 range for possible turns. I will be away on Tuesday and Wednesday of this week on business, so will be unable to post but I will do my best to post a comment or two.

 

Gannfann

Three Day Counter Rally?

Yesterday:

 

The S&P rallied hard after taking a retracement into the 38% range hitting the low of 714.76. This is where traders paying attention could have used yesterday’s low price as a guide for an entry. Yesterdays low was 713.85, so knowing prior support and a retracement that is near the 712, so you now have support at 712-713.85!! Round 713.85 up and you have 714…and that’s within .76 cents!! This is the way traders think and how you must look at it for an entry. So if you know that you could see support at 712-714 and you wanted to ensure a trade execution than you need to be realistic and round up 1 or 2 points giving you an entry of 715 or 716!! Here are my comments…..

 

“Prices must gain strength in these ranges and a break of the 100dma would be bullish. If prices could hold the 38% retracement at the 710-712 range that would be a good sign for the bulls, since it may indicate greater strength.”

 

We held the 38% retracement along with the 50dma and the 100dma. Prices held the prior days low showing higher bottoms. Prices broke above the prior major swing low of 741 demonstrating strength of the move and commitment. This made sense why traders bought into the close for a continuation of the counter rally.

 

Today:

 

Prices should reach the top for this initial advance so look for a possible turns near the 755-757 or if there is some momentum a top near 770-772. This is where there is an important retracement. I do think that prices should be overextended at the 770-772 range and that could be reached by around the 11:00 timeframe.

 

Bulls: The bulls should continue to have a good day as prices extend the gains from the prior move. This move will begin to weaken soon but appear to have confirmed an uptrend for the time being. The S&P will again have to take a corrective move soon if we are to see the 800 range. I do think that this move could stall today so traders must be mindful of an overbought condition.

 

Bears: The Bears will get a possible short opportunity soon as traders take profits before the weekend and prices move into important resistance. Traders need to be mindful that the short term trend is up and have realistic downside targets. The technicals have improved on the long side so traders must plan for that. I do see that this trend could break to the downside but this may be early to see that occur yet.  

  

Support / Resistance:

 

770-772 2^nd resistance

754-757 1^st resistance

740-742 1^st support

720-722 2^nd support

 

Notes:

 

We could see a corrective move as prices reach some important targets. There has been a three day rally so I would be looking for this to weaken near the targets, but this rally seems to have some strength.

 

Gannfann

I'm Standing at the Crossroads, Believe I'm Sinking Down!!

Yesterday:

 

The S&P hit the 931.92 range topping out at the 100dma and tested the 100dma again near the close at 727.96. Since prices were only 6-8 points from my target it made sense that prices became overbought on the short term needing a corrective move.

 

“The bulls need to think of this move as a two to three day rally, followed by a corrective move. This corrective move must occur if the move has any chance of extending itself for any length of time.”

 

“There should be a corrective move or a retest that will happen very shortly. Prices need to hold important retracement on any corrective move if this move has any chance of continuing higher.” This is where we are today….

 

Today:

 

Prices should go through a corrective move but prices need to hold the 690 or 700 range. It is in these ranges that prices may clean up or strengthen. I had pointed out in the previous comments that prices need this corrective move if they have any chance of continuing higher. I need to clarify my comments, since I received some email that felt I was bullish on this market. This is not the case and as I had pointed out before, I still feel we will head into the 400 range in the future. I am bearish on this market but as a chartist I must advise my readers when prices attempt to create a bottom. This does not mean that it will be successful in doing so, only that there is a possibility. I do not feel that this rally (if it can hold the retracement) will last very long, since there will be a great deal of inventory and bad news applying pressure on the upside.

 

Bulls: The bulls need prices to hold the 690 or the 700 range if this move has any chance of moving higher. The 700 range is where the 50dma is on the 60min chart so that is important price point. Prices must gain strength in these ranges and a break of the 100dma would be bullish. If prices could hold the 38% retracement at the 710-712 range that would be a good sign for the bulls, since it may indicate greater strength.

 

Bears: The bears need to be mindful that prices may hold in the retracement range since the jury is still out if the new trend will last. It is normal to see these corrective moves backfill if they are to advance further, so this is what traders must evaluate today and let the price action tell you. I am still bearish so I wouldn’t be surprised if this move failed and we broke to retest the prior low or the 640 range, but I will let the price action tell me.

 

Support / Resistance:

 

738-740 2^nd resistance

728-730 1^st resistance

710-712 1^st support

700-703 2^nd support

 

Notes:

 

This pattern is in a crucial point since prices are at a crossroads where they show or confirm the new pattern. So far the price action has been trading correctly under the circumstances, so this is normal to have prices backfill (to absorb sellers and attract new buyers) so they can advance higher.

 

Gannfann